On December 12 of this year, the YSU Faculty of Economics and Management hosted scientific seminar, during which Associate Professor Nairuhi Jrbashyan from the Chair of Mathematical Modeling in Economics presented her research on "Trends in Aquaculture Production in the Region and Armenia and the Modeling of Their Interconnections".
The study was conducted as part of the grant-funded scientific project "Development of Innovative Technologies for Efficient Aquaculture Production in the Republic of Armenia" under the RA MoESCS's "Scientific Effectiveness Promotion Grant Program-2025". The main findings of the research have been presented at international conferences and published in a scientific journal (Dynamic Linkages Between Regional and Armenian Aquaculture: Evidence from PCA and ARDL Error Correction Analysis).
The rapid growth of aquaculture and fishery production worldwide serves as a guarantee for food security and the availability of protein-rich nutrition. Globally, the sector continues to expand steadily. In Armenia, aquaculture and fishery production have also grown significantly over the past two decades. Considering the latest developments in this sector in Armenia and the fact that the most recent studies are over ten years old, this research examines trends in aquaculture and fishery production at the global, regional, and national levels.
The study analyzes the dynamics of aquaculture and fishery production in the region and its impact on Armenian production. Through principal component analysis, the research identifies the regional growth factors influencing aquaculture production, which are subsequently incorporated into an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Error Correction Model.
The modeling results reveal a long-term positive integration between Armenia's aquaculture production and that of regional countries. Despite some short-term negative effects from regional production, Armenia's aquaculture sector quickly returns to equilibrium due to these integrative linkages.
The findings and modeling results provide a foundation for recommendations to ensure the stability of Armenia's aquaculture production in both the short and long term. These recommendations are particularly important, as starting March 2025, Armenia will gain the right to export fish and fish products to the European Union.
The research team, consisting of academic staff members, undergraduate and postgraduate students from the Chair of Mathematical Modeling in Economics, will continue this work under the grant program, with further results planned for publication in international scientific journals.
Seminar participants actively discussed the presented research, highlighting the significance of aquaculture and fishery production for the Armenian economy, as well as the academic assessment of associated environmental risks and the need for state regulation.
Among the attendees at the seminar were academic staff members, undergraduate and postgraduate students. This event is part of an ongoing series of scientific seminars at the YSU Faculty of Economics and Management, which are open to academic staff, undergraduate and postgraduate students from YSU and other universities in Armenia.
